Huge space for magnetic components in 2023

(1) Vehicle-mounted & charging pile magnetic components are widely used, and domestic substitution of vehicle-mounted magnetic components under the 800V architecture is accelerated

Sales of new energy vehicles continue to exceed expectations, and automotive magnetic components are widely used. At the beginning of 2021, the Passenger Association predicted that the domestic sales of new energy vehicles will be 2 million in 2021, and 6 million in 2025, with a five-year CAGR of 34.4%. The actual sales of domestic new energy vehicles from January to October 2021 will reach 2.138 million. exceeded full-year expectations. Magnetic components are upstream of new energy vehicle OBC, DC/DC and other components. Magnetic components in vehicle applications include OBC inductors/transformers of on-board chargers, low-voltage DC converter inductors/transformers (low DC/DC), high-voltage DC converters Inductors (high DC/DC), filters, etc.

The dual stimulation of policy + downstream demand is expected to accelerate charging piles, and magnetic components are applied to the core components of charging piles. In the past few years, the number of charging piles in China has grown rapidly, and the ratio of vehicles to piles has continued to decrease. Under the double stimulation of policies and downstream demand, the development of charging piles is expected to accelerate. The charging pile is mainly divided into a charging module, a main control board, a charging gun/wiring harness, and a housing. The charging module is one of the core components and has functions such as AC and DC conversion. Magnetic components are mainly used in the charging module.

Under the 800V architecture, the value of magnetic components has increased, and domestic substitution of automotive magnetic components is expected to accelerate. Insufficient cruising range and slow charging speed are the two major shortcomings of new energy vehicles. There are mainly high-current low-voltage schemes and high-voltage low-current fast-charging schemes to improve charging power. The high-current scheme has high requirements for heat dissipation and wiring harnesses, and is currently mainly used by Tesla; the high-voltage fast-charging scheme can effectively improve charging efficiency and improve vehicle operation. In terms of efficiency, Porsche was the first to launch the 800V voltage platform Taycan series in 2019. The charging power of the Taycan Turbo S model can reach up to 350KW, and the battery with a capacity of 93.4kWh can be charged from 5% to 80% in 22.5 minutes. The fast charging solution based on the 800V architecture puts forward higher requirements for the magnetic components of the vehicle and the charging pile, and the value is expected to increase. In the past, automotive magnetic components were mainly controlled by Japanese manufacturers. The 800V solution required a re-examination of the performance of automotive components, and domestic substitution ushered in a window period.

(2) It is estimated that the market space of magnetic components for vehicles and charging piles will be nearly 10 billion in 25 years

It is estimated that the market space of automotive magnetic components will exceed 7 billion in 25 years. In 2025, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles will be 18 million, with a ten-year CAGR of 40.3%. According to industry chain research, the value of magnetic components for pure electric vehicles is between 300 and 500, and the value of a single vehicle is calculated as 400. According to our calculation results, the market space of automotive magnetic components in 21 years is 2.6 billion yuan, and the market space of vehicle magnetic components in 25 years is expected to exceed 7 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 28.1% in 4 years.

It is estimated that the market space of charging pile magnetic components will reach 2.5 billion in 25 years. According to the data of the charging alliance, the ratio of AC and DC charging piles in domestic charging piles from 2018 to 2019 is 6:4. It is assumed that the AC and DC charging piles in the world maintain this ratio; the average power of new DC charging piles in 2019 is 116KW. The charging scheme continues to advance and the installed power is expected to continue to increase; assuming that commercial vehicles will account for 5% of new energy vehicles after 2021, commercial vehicles will adopt the battery replacement mode, and there will be no supporting construction of charging piles; It is 1 module, and the value of each module's magnetic components is 200 yuan. It is assumed that each AC pile uses 1 module, and each DC pile uses 4 modules. According to our calculation results, the market space for charging pile magnetic components in 21 years is 900 million yuan, and the market space for charging pile magnetic components in 25 years is expected to reach 2.5 billion, with a 4-year CAGR of 29.1%. The total market space of vehicle & charging pile magnetic parts in 21 years is 3.5 billion yuan, and the total market space in 25 years is 9.7 billion yuan, with a 4-year CAGR of 29%.