Photovoltaic energy storage is accelerating upwards, and there is a wide space for inverter magnetic

Photovoltaic energy storage is accelerating upwards, and there is a wide space for inverter magnetic components

1. The rapid development of photovoltaics and the rapid development of energy storage

Distributed and household use accelerated, and photovoltaic installed capacity increased. In 2020, the total installed capacity of centralized photovoltaics in China will be 174.4GW, accounting for 69% of the total installed capacity, and distributed photovoltaics will account for 31%. One of the advantages of distributed photovoltaic is that it can adopt the mode of "spontaneous self-use, and the surplus is connected to the grid". In the central and eastern regions with large electricity demand and high user electricity price, small and medium-sized distributed photovoltaic can be developed according to local conditions. With the support of the “Entire County Promotion” policy, distributed projects are expected to develop rapidly, and household photovoltaic projects will maintain rapid growth, which is expected to hit a new record high. In 2021, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in the world will be 170GW, and the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in China will be 54.9GW. It is estimated that in 2022, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in the world will be 195-240GW, and the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in China will be 75-90GW.

Electrochemical energy storage is the mainstream solution for new energy storage. In the past, domestic and foreign energy storage projects were dominated by pumped storage. By 2020, pumped storage accounted for 89.3% of the global installed capacity, followed by electrochemical energy storage, which accounted for 9.2%. In 2020, among the new installed capacity of energy storage, the installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage accounts for nearly 73%, which is currently the mainstream installed capacity of energy storage technology.

The rapid development of electrochemical energy storage under the double carbon target. The cumulative installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage has risen from 893.5MW in 2014 to 14247.3MW in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 48.5%. Under the background of rapid development of photovoltaic and wind power, energy storage projects are expected to continue to develop at a high speed. In the next 10 years, the installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage will continue to grow at a high rate. It is predicted that the compound annual growth rate will reach 31%. As a large installed capacity of electrochemical pure energy storage and a pioneer of the energy revolution, China's cumulative installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage in the next five years will achieve an annualized compound growth rate of 70.5% under ideal conditions.

2. The inverter is the core component of photovoltaic and energy storage, and the magnetic components have a wide space

The inverter is the core component of photovoltaic & energy storage, and the magnetic components are the important upstream of the inverter. Inverter is a power device that converts direct current into alternating current. It can convert direct current into alternating current with adjustable frequency and amplitude to meet the quality requirements of connecting to the grid. It is an important part of new energy power generation and grid connection, and belongs to the middle reaches of the industrial chain . There are mainly centralized, distributed, string, micro-inverter and so on. Magnetic components such as inductors are an important part of the inverter.

With the rise of distributed photovoltaics, the proportion of string inverters has increased. With the rise of distributed photovoltaics and the penetration of strings in centralized power plants, the proportion of string inverters continues to increase. In 2020, the proportion of domestic string inverters will be close to 65%.

The volume of string inverters increases and the price is high. Compared with centralized inverters, string inverters account for 6.3% of the cost of photovoltaic systems and are of higher value (centralized inverters account for 2.6% of photovoltaic system costs).

Magnetic components account for up to 15% of the inverter cost, and the energy storage inverter uses a larger amount of magnetic components. Inverter magnetic components include inductors, transformers, etc. In 2019, the direct material cost of inverters accounted for 12.8% and 4.1% respectively, and the total accounted for 16.9%, second only to 24.8% of mechanical components, larger than semiconductors Devices accounted for 10.6%; direct materials accounted for 93.17% of the inverter cost, and the inductor and transformer accounted for 15.7% of the total inverter cost. The energy storage inverter adds modules such as AC/DC, and the amount of magnetic components is larger.

3. It is estimated that the market space of inverter magnetic components will exceed 10 billion in 25 years

Derivation of the value ratio of magnetic components in inverters: Inverter companies Jinlang Technology and GoodWe, which have disclosed the cost ratio of components in recent years, were selected as samples, and the proportions of their magnetic components were calculated respectively. The results show that magnetic components account for 11.9% to 15.7% of the cost of the inverter, and 8% to 10.4% of the revenue. Considering that Jinlang Technology only discloses the inductance data and the transformer data is not disclosed, the magnetic components calculated from this The proportion of components has decreased, and the follow-up calculation is based on the fact that magnetic components account for 10% of the inverter revenue.

Derivation of market space for photovoltaic inverter magnetic components: CPIA neutral data (mean value) is used for the forecast data of photovoltaic installed capacity; the average value of inverter unit value (yuan/W) in 2020 is taken from Sungrow, Ginlong Technology, and GoodWe The calculation is 0.24 yuan/W. We calculate that the market space of magnetic components for photovoltaic inverters will be 3.9 billion in 21 years, 6.3 billion in 25 years, and a 4-year CAGR of 12.7%.

Derivation of energy storage inverter market space: The newly installed capacity of global energy storage, of which electrochemical energy storage accounts for 72% based on 2020 data; the installed power of inverters is calculated according to the distribution and storage time of 2 hours; the value of energy storage inverters in 2019 is 1.2~1.6 yuan/W, take 1.4 yuan/W in 2019, and calculate according to the annual cost reduction of 10%. We calculate that the market space for magnetic components used in energy storage inverters will be 1.43 billion yuan in 2021, and 5.04 billion yuan in 2025, with a 4-year CAGR of 37% (the 2022 "14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development" and other policies continue to To stimulate the development of the energy storage market, it is estimated that the installed capacity of energy storage inverters in 22 years will be 36GW, a year-on-year growth rate of 177%, which is higher than the compound growth rate of 4 years). We predict that the total market space of photovoltaic & energy storage inverter magnetic components will be 5.33 billion yuan in 2021, 11.34 billion yuan in 2025, and a 4-year CAGR of 20.8%.